Predicting the 2010 Oscar Winners


The 2010 Oscar nominations have been announced, and with a month to go until the ceremony, it’s time to start wildly guessing who the winners will be.

Why wildly? Because I’ve only seen about half of the movies and performances nominated. Hey, I’m not made of time or money, people!

But I won’t let my lack of knowledge stop me from judging and forming opinions. It’s the American way.

Best Picture

“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up in the Air”

Will Win: They may as well paint the Oscar statue blue it’s so obvious “Avatar” will win.

My Choice: How awesome would it have been if “The Hangover” had been nominated? It wouldn’t have won in a million years, but with the new 10-movie format, I would have loved it if it had landed one of the slots. I didn’t particularly *love* any of these movies (and only saw five of them), but I would pick “Up in the Air” for managing to be funny, heartbreaking, and timely, without be melodramatic or pandering.

. . .

Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
Jeremy Renner

Will Win: Barring a huge upset, Jeff Bridges has this pretty much locked.

My Choice: I do love me some (or a lot) Colin Firth, so I’d probably give it to him just to hear him give an acceptance speech.

. . .

Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock
Helen Mirren
Carey Mulligan
Gabourey Sidibe
Meryl Streep

Will Win: Even though heavy-hitters like Mirren and Streep are nominated (oh yeah, and Bullock *snort*), I think Gabourey Sidibe will be the winner.

My Choice: While I had mixed feelings about “Precious” as a whole, Sidibe was unbelievable in it and deserves to win. And judging by her talk show appearances, her acceptance speech should be awesome.

. . .

Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon
Woody Harrelson
Christopher Plummer
Stanley Tucci
Christoph Waltz

Will Win: Christoph Waltz. He spoke four languages fluently, was an absolutely terrifying Nazi, yet was almost charming at times, and gives one of the best jubilant cries of “Bingo!” I’ve ever heard.

My Choice: Christoph Waltz. Again, he spoke four languages fluently, was an absolutely terrifying Nazi, yet was almost charming at times, and gives one of the best jubilant cries of “Bingo!” I’ve ever heard.

. . .

Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz
Vera Farmiga
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Anna Kendrick

Will Win: Mo’Nique has this in the bag. And every other lady in this category knows it.

My Choice: I loved Anna Kendrick back when she was in “Camp,” but I’m not going to deny that Mo’Nique deserves to win.

. . .

Animated Feature Film

“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”

Will Win: “Up.” They should really just rename this category, “And the Oscar goes to Pixar.”

My Choice: “Up.” The reason Pixar always wins, is simply because their movies are just superior to the other choices.

. . .

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
“An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
“In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell,
Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
“Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Will Win: This one is tricky to predict. It’ll probably be either “Precious” or “Up in the Air,” with my guess being “Up in the Air.”

My Choice: Making a detached character like Ryan Bingham sympathetic and relatable had to have been a daunting task, so I’d choose “Up in the Air.”

. . .

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
“Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
“A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter,
Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Will Win: Other than in the technical categories, this is probably the one shot “The Hurt Locker” has at winning. “Inglourious Basterds” might have a shot, but I think the number of plot holes and unanswered questions might hurt its chances, making “The Hurt Locker” the winner.

My Choice: Despite its flaws, “Inglourious Basterds” was a more verbose movie than “The Hurt Locker,” so I would think it more deserving of a writing award.

. . .


James Cameron
Kathryn Bigelow
Quentin Tarantino
Lee Daniels
Jason Reitman

Will Win: As much as everyone seems to want to pit amicable exes Cameron and Bigelow against each other (despite the fact neither seems even remotely interested in competing and they have only good things to say about each other’s movies), Cameron will no doubt win for “Avatar.”

My Choice: I’m in the major minority here in that I don’t care about “Avatar.” I’d either give it to Reitman because I have a bit of a crush on him, or Tarantino because he’s so wonderfully weird, or Bigelow because she proves that women can be interested in movies that aren’t about weddings or makeovers.

. . .

So there they are, my predictions for the 2010 Oscars. Will I score 100 percent like I did last year? We’ll find out on March 7.

. . .

Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments section.

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8 Comments Add Yours ↓

  1. Jason #

    Who I think will win (who I wish would win but know won’t):
    Picture: Avatar (Up in the Air)
    Director: Katherine Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” (Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”)
    Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” (George Clooney, “Up in the Air”)
    Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” (Carey Mulligan, “An Education”)
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” (same)
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious” (Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”)
    Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds” (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, “UP”)
    Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (same)
    Animated Feature: UP (same)

  2. Alexa M. #

    I’m one of the few people who thinks “Avatar” is not a shoo-in for Best Picture or Best Director. “The Hurt Locker” has shown a lot of momentum at the guild awards, picking up both the Producer’s Guild and Director’s Guild prizes. In 54 out of the last 60 years, the DGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture, and 58 out of the last 60 years the DGA winner has also won Best Director. “Avatar” may have cleaned up at the Globes, but I wouldn’t write “The Hurt Locker” off just yet.

  3. 3

    Because I’m totally out of touch with last year’s output I’ve barely seen any of these noms (yeah, I know). So I’m winging it with these guesses:

    Best Picture – Avatar
    Actor – George Clooney
    Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz (deservedly so)
    Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
    Animated Feature – Up (but make no bones about it, Coraline is easily better than it)
    Adapted Screenplay – Precious
    Original Screenplay – A Serious Man
    Director – James Cameron

  4. Cam Smith #

    I agree with Alexa, I don’t think that AVATAR will win. Aside from not winning any guild awards, it also didn’t receive any noms in the acting or screenplay categories. I’m too lazy to do the research, but has there ever been a Best Picture not recognized in those categories? Plus, it’s sci-fi, and Academy no like sci-fi!1! In my opinion, if it won, it would be a debacle year akin to AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS or THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  5. Cam Smith #

    Oh, here’s my pics:

    Best Picture – THE HURT LOCKER
    Actor – Jeff Bridges
    Actress – Sandra Bullock
    Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz
    Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique
    Animated Feature – UP
    Adapted Screenplay – UP IN THE AIR
    Original Screenplay – INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
    Director – KATHRYN BiGELOW (She won the DGA, after all…)

  6. Janine #

    If Avatar wins it will be as sad a day in Oscar history as when Shakespheare in Love took it.

  7. Josiane #

    Okay, these are not the ones that I know should win but the ones I think will win.

    Best Picture: Avatar
    Best director: Katryn Bigelow
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock
    Supporting role, actor: Christopher Waltz
    Supporting role, actress: Mo’nique
    Animated feature: Up
    Original screenplay: Bastards
    Adapted screenplay: Up in the Air

  8. buticut #

    Directing: Kathryn Bigelow
    Writing (Original Screenplay):tough call between THL and IB, but I am going with the Basterds!
    Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Up in the Air
    Animated: Up
    Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique
    Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz
    Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock
    Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges, although I am rooting too for Firth!

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